Bitcoin has shown surprising resilience amid escalating trade tensions between the United States and China and growing concerns about a potential economic recession. The crypto is currently shocking all market participants by behaving more like a safe-haven asset. Many are even calling it the new gold, distanced from its previous connections to the Nasdaq stock exchange.
During the weeks leading up to April 22, Bitcoin staged an incredible surge. It roared ahead by 12%, overcoming the headwinds from the constant devastation of the trade war. This resilience is remarkable indeed given the context of escalating tariffs between the US and China.
As of April 9, the US had already raised these reciprocal tariffs on China to a whopping 125%. In retaliation, China increased these same import tariffs from 84% to 125% starting April 12.
Even with these harsh economic headwinds, Bitcoin’s price action indicates a critical change in Bitcoin’s market perception.
Nansen CEO Alex Svanevik to use industry language, he has experienced this decoupling first-hand. He noted that Bitcoin is slowly emerging as a safe haven, decoupling from its traditional correlation with equities. This is a sign of increased maturity for Bitcoin as a global asset.
"We expect gold to be more resilient, although gold holdings could be net sold in case investors panic and want to cover margin call. This was seen one to two days at the worst of the trade war earlier this month." - Alex Svanevik
Just last week, JPMorgan analysts raised the chances for a US recession in 2025 from 40% to 60%. This announcement contributes to the steadily rising tide of economic uncertainty.
"The latest unwinding of the Liberation Day tariffs reduces the shock to the global trading order, but the remaining universal 10% tariff is still a material threat to growth and the 145% tariff on China keeps the probability of a recession at 60%." - JPMorgan
Bitcoin’s resilience to an extent indicates its breakthrough potential as a safe-haven asset, providing capital a hedge against times of global economic disruption. Thanks to institutions for disrupting Bitcoin’s cycle, though, and as of writing, Bitcoin is still up 33% since the 2024 halving.
