Moments ago, Bitcoin was showing some truly bullish signs. One of the most important metrics, the driving force behind trends we witnessed when the crypto bottomed out during Q3 2024, The Long-Term Holder (LTH) Realized Cap, a measure of the cost basis for investors holding Bitcoin for 155 days or more, has surpassed $18 billion for the first time since September 2024.
Bitcoin then shot up with nearly 100% returns in the subsequent months. During this spike, the LTH Realized Cap just hit $18 billion in September 2024. The recent increase in the LTH Realized Cap shows that there has been some very aggressive accumulation. If history is any guide, this trend has marked Bitcoin’s low in Q3-2024.
Contributing to the bullish outlook, Bitcoin open interest (OI) has jumped by almost 10% over the last 24 hours. Through the month of July, Bitcoin open interest skyrocketed to a record high of $39 billion. Nevertheless, it tanked 25% by September. So, in the current increase in open interest particularly, the more telling sign. Price action following such a large move in open interest will tell us whether there’s a more defined directional bias in the works. Bitcoin is preparing for a possible bullish breakout.
Bitcoin’s open interest experienced a shocking 28% increase from December 18 to April 8. This drop is a precursor to the bottom setup we’re currently seeing in September 2024. As a result, Bitcoin’s price jumped almost 10 percent in under three days. This rally came after a new yearly low was set at $74,500 from April 7th to the 9th.
Our analysis of Bitcoin’s cost basis distribution indicates legitimate support at $79,000. A heatmap built on cost basis distribution helps visualize investor accumulation, giving deeper insight into possible future price action.
