Bitcoin’s total addressable market (TAM) without gold is around $169 trillion—showing massive growth potential. Global treasury reserves, institutional investment, and adoption as digital gold – all factors that will help propel Bitcoin’s growth. The analysis looks at different penetration rates under multiple scenarios, giving a full spectrum of potential future valuation outcomes for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin's TAM benefits from several key sectors. Global Treasury Reserves, gold excluded, come to about $15 trillion. The Global Market Portfolio, again excluding gold, is about $200 trillion. The total market capitalization of gold is estimated at $18 trillion. Onboarding businesses using Layer 2 solutions greatly expands the total addressable market as well. Adding in the Lightning Network, sidechains, restaking and WBTC doubles it, an astounding $35 billion.
So penetration rates into these markets change widely between scenarios. Treasure Department of various Nation-states are observing different penetration. Its bear case at 0.5%, base case 2.5% and bull case at 7%. In the digital gold market penetration rates range widely. The bear case 20% rate, base case 40% and bull case 60%. Even in the current bear market, institutional investments only penetrate 1%. In a base case scenario, this goes up to 2.5%, and in a bull market, up to an astonishing 6.5%.
As of 2030, Bitcoin’s active supply will be only 60%. When you take this very limited supply and add in increasing demand, it can have a huge effect on its price. Based on the above analysis, we can conclude that Bitcoin’s valuation is mostly contingent on its adoption rate by various sectors of the economy.
All investable capital assets corresponding to its market value divided by the sum of the market values of all assets. As the sum of all holdings that result from the collective decisions of investors and issuers, as well as suppliers and demanders of capital, the Global Market Portfolio can be seen as a de facto proxy for the investable opportunity set available to all investors globally. - State Street, The Global Market Portfolio
This monumental projected TAM of $169 trillion only emphasizes the extraordinary opportunity that Bitcoin has before it to become one of the contradictory world’s dominant and dominating forms. Its growth will depend on the pace of nation-state adoption, the extent to which it serves as digital gold and broader institutional investment.
