David Duong, Coinbase’s global head of research, provided his perspective on those findings in a Wednesday blog post. He said the crypto market was not likely to recover until Q3 2025. This crystal ball prediction, though, is issued with a caveat, as Duong puts particular stress on the “may” as the operative word. His critique almost three months after Donald Trump’s inauguration as the 47th president of the United States. This coincided with perhaps the most severe bear crypto market on record. Bitcoin, for example, has dropped more than 20% from its January 20 height—sending some investors scrambling to safer ground.
Duong’s full analysis, which employs the 200-Day Moving Average model. This model makes a long-term trend assessment by taking the average of the closing prices of the previous 200 days. This model currently "signals potential bearish long-term trends in the overall market," indicating the start of a bear market in early March. The 200-Day Moving Average model is all about long term trends and removing the short term noise and fluctuations.
Venture capital investments in the crypto space have similarly plummeted. Venture capital is "down 50-60% from the levels observed during the peak of the 2021-22 cycle," further contributing to the cautious outlook.
“All of these structural pressures stem from the uncertainty of the broader macro environment, where traditional risk assets have faced sustained headwinds from fiscal tightening and tariff policies,” - Duong
Bitcoin has been on the upswing as of late. It notoriously moves well over 20% in either direction. Though the 20% rule is a good general guideline, it isn’t the only metric worth focusing on.
In light of recent market turbulence and unpredictability, Duong advocates a short-term “defensive tilt on risk.” This prudent approach is in line with the prevailing economic landscape. These traditional risk assets are all reeling in the wake of fiscal tightening and increasingly protectionist tariff measures.
Donald Trump alone was inaugurated as the 47th president of the United States. This was the same week that Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $108,786. Under the leadership of President Trump, the administration has pursued numerous efforts to ease US regulation on crypto.
