Coinbase says Q3 rebound? Really? Let's be honest, when a company that profits from trading volume tells you things are going to get better, you should probably grab your wallet and run the other way. Their latest “Monthly Outlook” is forecasting a crypto recovery — a bullish market — by Q3 2025. I see these warning signs all over the place, like a used car dealer on clearance sale day. I’m not convinced, and here are the reasons you should not be either, particularly if you’re new to this highly cyclical casino.
Is Coinbase Selling False Hope?
Second, and frankly most infuriating, reason to doubt this rosy prediction is the obvious conflict of interest. Coinbase needs you to trade. They require you to buy into the notion that the market will eventually recover. Their revenue depends on it. Its akin to asking a casino if gambling is a good idea. Of course, they'll tell you it is! They’ll paint a story of unimaginable wealth, conveniently omitting the fact that you could lose your entire investment. This isn’t about any of us giving them proper financial advice, this is about them caring about their bottom line.
Think about it. They’re all tactfully calling for a “healthier correction,” a “pause,” a “mini crypto winter.” It’s concerning to see so many Gen Z investors risk their life savings in crypto when it was at its peak. For them, this issue isn’t some adorable “time-out.” This is a financial gut punch. That’s the difference between being able to pay rent and getting kicked out. Are they acting in good faith with these reports, like Coinbase claims to be, when they release these reports? Are they very seriously considering what the single mom who put all her stimulus money into Dogecoin because she saw it on TikTok expects in return? I seriously doubt it.
Macroeconomic Mess Equals Crypto Mess
Even Coinbase admits the “terribly messy macroeconomic environment” – inflation, interest rate hikes, geopolitical tensions. Okay, great. They gloss over the severity of these mitigating factors. These aren’t just typical whipsaws, these are hurricane-force gales slamming into the entire global economy.
Every month inflation is eroding the purchasing power of consumers. Interest rates are jacking up the cost of direct borrowing, which in turn is squeezing disposable income. Unfortunately, the war in Ukraine keeps adding to the uncertainty and instability. How can anyone credibly dare to predict anything like a big crypto turnaround in Q3 with all this going on in the background? It’s akin to attempting to test and launch a rocket while a tornado is hitting your test site. Possible? Maybe. Probable? Absolutely not.
If the S&P 500 continues to struggle, taking down even seasoned investors, what makes anyone think crypto, a notoriously volatile asset, will suddenly defy gravity? Bitcoin's 76% drop between 2021 and 2022 compared to the S&P 500's 22% decline shows the potential risks. If legacy markets are on thin ice, crypto will be on thinner ice.
Technical Indicators Are Not Foolproof
Coinbase emphasizes some technical indicators like the 200-day moving average and Bitcoin Z-score. As discussed earlier, these indicators are cautionary, but they do not suggest the need for outright bearishness. Here's the thing about technical analysis: it's more art than science. It really is no better than reading tea leaves or consulting a psychic. It is heavily reliant on past performance and that’s no guarantee of future results.
More importantly, these indicators lag. By the time they trace a trend, it’s usually too late to respond to it. They do account for crypto’s volatility but are often late to the party detecting emerging trends. Relying on these indicators alone is like driving down the road while only looking through your rearview mirror. You're going to crash.
"Healthy Correction" Is a Dangerous Narrative
The notion of a “healthy correction” is particularly insidious. It implies that this downturn is somehow good for the market, that it's shaking out the "noise" and resetting valuations. Yet for many investors—particularly those who over-invested at the peak luxury prices—this “correction” is catastrophic.
They're not just seeing a temporary dip in their portfolio. They're seeing their life savings evaporate. They're facing real financial hardship. To continue to label this as “healthy” is tone-deaf and frankly, offensive. This isn't a game. It's people's livelihoods.
Altcoins: The Real Danger Zone
Sure, Bitcoin can probably withstand that on it’s own, but the altcoin market is a totally different animal. The total market cap of all altcoins (not including Bitcoin) is down about 41% since December. The reality is that most of these coins are developed primarily on hype, speculation, marketing gimmicks, and very little real-world utility. On the flip side, when the market goes bad, these coins are the first to drop, lose value and burn up in flames.
Second, don’t fall prey to empty promises of easy money. Altcoins are extremely high risk, and most of them will never make it back. If you’re considering buying altcoins, don’t rush—do your homework. Our content is intended to be used and must be used by you at your own risk.
Don't blindly trust Coinbase's optimistic predictions. Do your own research. Consider diversifying your portfolio beyond crypto. Explore more traditional investment options. And most importantly, be extremely cautious. This market is harsh and vicious and you don’t want to be the last one holding the bag. Keep in mind, though, that whatever happens with your financial situation is wholly on you, not Coinbase. We could stand to have more investor-protective regulations. We all know that predatory practices can run rampant in the unregulated world of crypto, but they are often left unchallenged.
