Bitcoin surpassing Google. Let’s not skate past the stupidity of that sentence to focus on his real point. Under the umbrella of its famous, historic Proposition 22 campaign, for years Google had become synonymous with innovation, information, and the future. Now, one truly digital asset, cryptographically born itself, has surpassed it in overall market cap. Could it be the start of a great new fiscal awakening? Or are we just in a current-day Tulip Mania, fueled by FOMO and cheap cash bubble?

I wish this weren’t true, but every bull run seems to bring with it pronouncements of a paradigm shift. "This isn't 2017," they say. "Institutions are here now." And yes, the impact of Bitcoin ETFs is transformative. The towering inflows, such as the $936 million that came in on just one day—April 22nd—are hard to argue with. They offer a legitimate on-ramp for institutional cash. But let's not kid ourselves. The best part being there doesn’t save institutional involvement from being a potential factor that can increase volatility. Remember Long-Term Capital Management? Smartest guys in the room...until they weren't.

This sudden swell of capital can be as dangerous as it is beneficial. Not surprisingly, open interest in crypto futures jumped by 14% to $121.6 billion. Leverage speculation and a boost in confidence can lead to stunning rapid market liquidations. If the market mood changes, we might be in for another $600 million-like liquidation.

Alan Greenspan won’t be forgotten for his famous use of the term “irrational exuberance” to describe the dot-com bubble. Are we seeing something similar with Bitcoin? Every other market driver they’ve mentioned – the relaxing of U.S.-China trade tensions, ETF inflows, institutional purchases – seem flimsy at best. They’re not built on fundamental value, they’re built on hope and speculation. Trade tensions can flare up again tomorrow. ETF inflows can reverse just as quickly. Institutional sentiment is notoriously fickle.

Michael Saylor's Strategy₿ now holds over 538,200 BTC. That's a massive position. What if they choose to begin selling off their portfolio? The resulting crypto market sell-off could lead to a domino of liquidations, erasing millions of dollars overnight. This is not meant as a criticism of Saylor. It’s an unambiguous recognition of the risks inherent in a market largely controlled by only a handful of central players.

We're already hearing talk about Bitcoin targeting Nvidia's market cap. This is where the hype gets dangerous – not for the reasons you think. It’s a quest to one-up each agency’s speculation on future value with even more speculative future one-upmanship, based on merit. Nvidia is a very successful company playing an important role in producing cutting edge technology. What is the real value behind Bitcoin’s astronomical ascent?

As you might have expected, indeed the total cryptocurrency market capitalization has found support above the $3 trillion mark. This is not Monopoly money. Actual dollars, euros and yen pour into this most esoteric of asset classes. Despite its promise, it is mostly unregulated and extremely volatile by nature.

If you’ve already placed your bets on Bitcoin, breathe easy. But don't get greedy, either. Take some profits off the table. Rebalance your portfolio. Remember the old adage: bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.

If you’re thinking about buying Bitcoin, research it first. Understand the risks. Invest only what you can afford to lose. Diversify your holdings. And please, for Satoshi’s sake, stop falling for the hype.

  • Limited Supply: 21 million coins.
  • Decentralization: Resistant to censorship.
  • Store of Value: Potentially, but unproven.

Make no mistake, Bitcoin’s leapfrogging Google is a historic moment. Yet it’s a milestone that calls for caution over celebration. It's a moment to reflect on the inherent risks of the cryptocurrency market and to make informed decisions based on sound financial principles. If not, this “Google moment” might soon become a Lehman moment. Finally, ask yourself, are you investing—or are you gambling. The answer could determine your financial future.

What Should You Do?

If you're already invested in Bitcoin, don't panic. But don't get greedy, either. Take some profits off the table. Rebalance your portfolio. Remember the old adage: bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.

If you're considering investing in Bitcoin, do your homework. Understand the risks. Don't invest more than you can afford to lose. Diversify your holdings. And for the love of Satoshi, don't listen to the hype.

A Google Moment, or a Lehman Moment?

Bitcoin's surge past Google is a milestone, no doubt. But it's a milestone that demands caution, not celebration. It's a moment to reflect on the inherent risks of the cryptocurrency market and to make informed decisions based on sound financial principles. Otherwise, this "Google moment" could quickly turn into a Lehman moment. Ask yourself, are you investing, or are you gambling? The answer could determine your financial future.